On a Monday night in August, Sir Alex Ferguson made his way pitchside at Old Trafford.

Manchester United’s match against Wolverhampton Wanderers would conclude the Premier League’s opening weekend of fixtures.

“Sir Alex, I know you would have watched a lot of the football this weekend,” said the NBC Sports Soccer host Rebecca Lowe. “Which is the team that has impressed you most?”

Even for a distinguished, 13-time Premier League-winning manager, Ferguson’s response raised a metaphorical eyebrow.

“To be honest, I watched Aston Villa–Newcastle,” Ferguson began. “I can’t believe the scoreline. Aston Villa played fantastic football and just lost bad goals. Newcastle are very difficult to beat on their own ground in particular, their manager has done a fantastic job there. But it’s a surprising game, football. You can play teams off the pitch and you don’t score — that’s what happened to Aston Villa.”

Villa had been demolished 5-1 less than two days earlier. It had made pre-season optimism of Unai Emery’s side proving the league’s dark horses foolish. Yet their greatest advocate was now Ferguson.

This foresight from Sir Alex Ferguson is astonishing.

Despite Aston Villa’s 5-1 loss to Newcastle in Matchweek 1, the legendary manager said no side had impressed him more than @AVFCOfficial on the opening weekend 😱@PLinUSA | @NBCSportsSoccer pic.twitter.com/9BiqiBDJMT

— Premier League (@premierleague) January 30, 2024

 

Discernibly, Villa had been battered and bruised at St James’ Park. Five goals conceded, a shattering second anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) rupture inside four days, with Tyrone Mings on the half-hour mark following Emiliano Buendia, who had suffered his in training.

Though beyond the surface-level result, Ferguson was right and evidenced in retrospect. The score belied how good Villa were on the day, with their intentions and adherence to Emery’s system on show, despite sporadic execution.

 

Players made key individual errors leading to high-quality chances that were duly punished. This contributed to Villa conceding an expected goals (xG) — the sum of the probabilities of goalscoring chances — of 3.4. It is a sharp uptick on this season’s average of 1.2. Defensive principles malfunctioned, presenting Newcastle with oceans of space behind the back line and one-v-ones against goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez.

Strikingly, however, Villa’s xG count was 1.8, demonstrating the contrast in ruthlessness between them and Newcastle, and supporting Ferguson’s view. In the subsequent 33 games since, Villa’s average xG is 1.7.

Intangible factors came into play. Mings was stretchered off in the 31st minute with the score 2-1. The effect it had on team-mates was immeasurable, all sensing Mings had sustained a second career ACL injury.

Pau Torres replaced Mings for his Premier League debut but was short of sharpness. The expectation had been to integrate Torres and eventually implement a rewired defensive structure.

Two of Villa’s other substitutes, Jaden Philogene and Philippe Coutinho, left at the end of the window. This was indicative of a work-in-progress team compounded by the seriousness of Buendia and Mings’s injuries.

The consequence was a heavy opening-day defeat — yet in Ferguson’s mind, there was cause for confidence.

Villa’s costly high line shows signs of effectiveness

Plainly, every one of the five goals was avoidable — or “bad” as Ferguson put it. They came from individual errors or a defensive breakdown.

Villa’s high line appeared symptomatic of the teething issues. Such as Matty Cash playing Alexander Isak onside…

Players made uncharacteristic decisions in possession. Trailing 3-1, Cash regathered himself to pass to Martinez. In usual circumstances, Martinez would take a touch and calmly play out to Torres, just as Emery was instructing from the touchline.

Martinez instead smashed the ball out for a throw; Emery clenched his fists.

When play restarted, Newcastle cut through to score a fourth.

Before, Villa’s high line was undone by a simple ball over the top, with Martinez left stranded.

Fortunately, Torres had recovered in time, meaning Martinez was only booked for his pull on Miguel Almiron.

What did not help matters (as Emery points out), is that Newcastle assistant coach Jason Tindall was allowed to hound the fourth official Graham Scott…

The second goal was from a third phase of a soft free kick after Villa failed to recognise the overload and aerial superiority Newcastle had at the back post.

Ezri Konsa dallied to give Isak his second (Newcastle’s third). Emery, wanting to provide an additional layer of robustness, moved to a back three. Tellingly, in the next 33 games, Villa’s head coach only switched to this system once more.

Newcastle were insistent on turning Villa in behind…

And Torres, usually the coolest player on the pitch, started to panic and kicked the ball out of play…

The game state visibly knocked Villa. Newcastle’s fourth and fifth came from defenders jumping out of shape to win a ball they were never favourite for.

Here, the high line gets cut through, with Konsa caught square…

Torres is then spun before Diego Carlos decides to step out, leaving Harvey Barnes with half of Tyneside to run into.

Eight months on and Villa’s defensive system has been significantly refined. The high line is not as steadfast and more adaptive on the opponent.

In the recent league win against Bournemouth, captain John McGinn explained Emery wanted his players to start deeper, attempting to draw Bournemouth’s players higher, in and out of possession. This was to create space for a pacy frontline of Leon Bailey, Moussa Diaby and Ollie Watkins, all in one-v-ones, to exploit.

Impressive in transition

As McGinn alluded to, Emery’s attacking principles centre on manufacturing transitions. This is when Villa coax opposing forwards into pressing the back line, carving space between the lines to play forward quickly and centrally.

There are parallels to how Villa ripped Bournemouth apart during their 3-1 win at the weekend to what they tried to do against Newcastle. Villa create a three-v-three situation here…

The same transpired at the weekend. Villa used Bournemouth’s man-marking scheme to their advantage, generating another three-v-three.

In the second half, the choreographed pattern bore fruit, with Morgan Rogers’ pass finding Watkins, who squared for Diaby to finish.

Ferguson’s best United teams possessed pace and directness on the flanks. So in Bailey and Diaby attacking with gusto, Villa’s mode of attack likely resonated with the former manager. Against Newcastle on the opening day, all three of Villa’s Opta-defined counter-attacks resulted in shots. 

Emery, however, has since reneged on dovetailing Bailey with Diaby, preferring greater control. This started at Newcastle when Youri Tielemans replaced Bailey at half-time. Together, the pair have only started six times in the league since.

Diaby was Villa’s standout player, rounding off an incisive passing move for the equaliser, started by Douglas Luiz’s outside-of-the-boot pass finding Lucas Digne on the overlap.

Digne then crossed for Diaby to score…

Even if Villa did not play Newcastle “off the park” as Ferguson described it, in hindsight, they did create opportunities. The one-two below results in Diaby hitting the side netting from close range…

Villa’s possessional shape

Relative to their 47 per cent possession, Villa created plenty of chances, registering 16 shots to Newcastle’s 17. Pertinently, Newcastle had more than twice as many (13-6) on target, 12 of the 17 shots coming from inside the box.

Despite this, Villa recorded just six fewer touches in the opposing 18-yard box (27). Managing to regularly enter the final third highlighted that their on-pitch relationships, albeit in their nascent stages, displayed promise.

Villa were the more dominant in central midfield — shown in the territory graphic below — performing similar ball progression.

Emery tends to build in a back three, with five players behind the ball. Villa were effective in creating width, with the two ‘No 10s’ — McGinn and Diaby — working the space between Newcastle’s defence and midfield.

Villa’s adaptability in attacking areas is largely separated into two areas for Emery. One is playing Diaby and Bailey together to encourage pace and directness on transition…

The other, when Emery is searching for control — as he did in the second half — is to select a box midfield, consisting of four archetypal midfielders. And Villa showed effectiveness in progressing the ball into the final third, through the box midfield and rotations with Diaby…

Below, McGinn moves out wide, enabling Diaby to receive on the half-turn in the right half-space…

So after initial consternation, Ferguson’s intuition was right. He saw a team contending with mitigating factors but playing a potentially effective style.

Eight months later, with the creases ironed out and finessed, Villa are now fourth in the table — 16 points ahead of Newcastle — have given a contract extension to Emery and are on track for