MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – DECEMBER 31: Referees confer after a penalty during the second quarter of a game between the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)

If you’re a Baltimore Ravens fan and you don’t believe in coincidences, you won’t be happy with the referee assignment for Sunday’s AFC Championship Game against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Earlier this week, the NFL announced that referee Shawn Smith will be the head official for Sunday’s AFC title game, with Clete Blakeman serving as the head official for the San Francisco 49ers-Detroit Lions NFC Championship Game.

According to well-known NFL football analyst Warren Sharp, the home team in games officiated by Smith have only won 40.8 percent of the time over the last three years:
“Home teams have won only 40.8% of games in the last three years with Smith as referee. That is the lowest win rate for any referee in the NFL.

Across the NFL, home teams have won 55.4% of games during that span. With Smith, the rate precipitously drops down to 40.8%. Maybe the road teams are just that much better in the games he is assigned to call. I hoped that was the case, but then I looked at the great equalizer: the point spread.”

If you’ve paid close attention on social media throughout the 2023-24 NFL postseason, you’ll notice there were plenty of complaints about every single referee assignment. That’s just how the business works.

Still, it’s awfully hard to ignore the analysis from Sharp. The fact that home teams lose the considerable majority of games under Smith’s crew should be a little worrisome for the Ravens and their fans.

NFL referees are evaluated with a points/grading system, and the ones with the best scores will be assigned the postseason games. Whether fans like it or not, the league office has clearly been content with the performances of Smith and Blakeman thus far.

The Ravens are hosting their first AFC Championship Game in franchise history. The Chiefs are playing in their sixth straight conference title game, but this is the first one they’ll play on the road in the Patrick Mahomes era.